IRAN 1-12 February 2009 Iranians celebrate 30th anniversary of revolution 

When the plane returning the Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini from exile circled over Tehran on 1 Feb 1979, a crowd estimated at 6 million waited below. In 2009 the crowds are unlikely to be as big, but could be as fervent. Thirty years on, the Islamic revolution is still in control and the Ayatollah rules from the grave with Holy Koran. The question is whether Tehran will tone down its anti-United States and anti-West vitriol during the 10-day celebrations. George W. Bush's "to-do" list in the waning days of his presidency could determine the answer.

The "10-Day Dawn" commemoration of the events that ended 2,500 years of monarchy and established the world's first modern theocracy begin on 1 Feb at 9:33 am, the time Khomeini's Air France flight from the Iraq Shia city of Najaf landed in Tehran. It culminates on 11 Feb, the date the Ayatollah and his supporters took control of the Iranian capital, cememting the overthrow of Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi. A helicopter will drop flowers on the Ayatollah's tomb and there will be a mass rally and a military parade.

Bush appears to be working through what he regards as the unfinished business of his presidency before Jan 20, when the White House changes hands. Western leaders have offered some enticements to Tehran to suspend its nuclear enrichment plans. If they are declined, and the West ramps up its economic war against the regime or if Bush follows through on hints of military action, those April speeches in Tehran could be a call to arms. Apart from Iran's unwillingness to give up its nuclear aspirations, points of dispute between Tehran and Washington include Iranian support for Hezbollah in Lebanon and Shiite militias in Iraq. Iran sees the same kind of hostility in the United States' invasion of Iran's neighbors, Iraq and Afghanistan; and he US presence in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran also blames Washington for escalating violence in Lebanon.

As noted 20 years later in a BBC story about the revolution by one of the 150 revolutionies who accompanied the Ayatollah on his return on Feb 1, "less than half of us are probably still alive today. All revolutions devour their children but the Iranian revolution had a fiercer appetite than most."

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Iranian revolution (MSN Encarta)
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Iran's revolution revisited (BBC 12 Feb 1999)
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Iran hardliners criticize Khatami's "insulting" speech (Reuters 7 May 2008)
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