LONDON 27 June 2008 Prime Minister Gordon Brown faces first year milestone in trouble 

On 27 Jun 2008 Gordon Brown will have been prime minister of Britain for one year. The milestone invites retrospectives about his wins and losses since succeeding Tony Blair. He could be in trouble. A recent poll puts the opposition Conservatives well ahead of Labour. Inflation and his recent climb down over new laws on embryos and fertilisation have hurt his reputation for competence.

Consumer-price inflation is accelerating and the economy is heading for its weakest performance in 16 years. Labour lags behind the Conservatives by the biggest margin in 21 years, according to two recent polls. The ICM survey for The Sunday Telegraph puts the Conservatives on 43 per cent - seven points ahead of Labour on 36. The opinion poll shows public support for the Tories at its highest level for 15 years. The Tory lead could translate into a rout for Labour in Britain's local election on May 1.

Brown gave into pressure from the Catholic Church over Easter and agreed to let Labour members of parliament vote according to their consciences on three controversial clauses in the Human Fertilisation and Embryology Bill -- human-animal hybrid embryo research, IVF research and so-called "saviour siblings." The vote is expected in May or June. Cardinal Keith O'Brien, the leader of the Catholic Church in Scotland, referred to the research as "Frankenstein" experiments with hybrid embryos.

Brown's reputation for staid competence, forged during a decade as Chancellor of the Exchequer, carried over into his premiership. He maintained a comfortable lead in the polls in his first months because of his prompt response to several crises, including the failed car bombings in London and Glasgow, floods in England and an outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease. He also appears to be unscathed after recent financial jitters, which prompted a run on deposits at mortgage lender Northern Rock PLC.

His announcement in March after an unannounced visit to Iraq that British forces there would be cut by 1000 by Christmas 2008 triggered speculation that he would call an early election to strengthen his and Labour's lead in Parliament. He has since ruled out an early election, which could have made him Britain's shortest-serving prime minister.

The opposition Conservative Party has accused Brown of "dithering" over his refusal to grant a free vote earlier, and insists he lacks vision. Mar/08

RELATED READING:

Brown says curbing inflation to keep rates low (Bloomberg 25 Mar 2008)

Gordon Brown allows free vote on embryos (Telegraph 25 Mar 2008)

Brown launches election campaign with policing pledge (Guardian 25 Mar 2008)