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VILNIUS 7-8 February 2008 Lithuania hosts NATO defense ministers. Harder fight in Afghanistan? 

Kosovo's imminent declaration of independence, Russia's unilateral cancellation of the CFE treaty and Afghanistan represent equally demanding issues when NATO's defense ministers meet in February.

Pristina has firmly rejected any further dialog on the issue with Serbia. US-led NATO has been leading a peacekeeping operation in Kosovo since June 1999 in an attempt to build peace and stability in the contested province. The independence declaration could embroil NATO in a wider engagement as Serbia is likely to look for ways to retaliate if it loses the province. In an interview with The Associated Press, the frontrunner standing for Serbia's presidential election, ultranationalist Tomislav Nikolic, says his country needs Russian military bases inside his country to counter the United States "threat" over Kosovo. And if Kosovo declares independence, he added, Serbia should use force to protect non-Albanians there if NATO does not. Serbia should impose "a complete blockade" of the southern province if it secedes, he said.

The Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (or CFE Treaty), signed in Paris on 19 Nov 1990 by the 22 members of NATO and the former Warsaw Pact, is an arms control agreement that established parity in major conventional forces/armaments between East and West from the Atlantic to the Urals. Russia suspended the treaty unilaterally in December, but there are hints it might be willing to negotiate with NATO.

In Afghanistan, Alliance commanders have voiced the possibility that the NATO-led forces could lose against the Taliban insurgency. In December the Pentagon confirmed that the US military and its NATO partners were reviewing plans for Afghanistan after the bloodiest year in the country since the extremist Taliban were ousted from power in late 2001. The United States has about 26,000 troops in Afghanistan, with NATO providing most of the additional 28,000 foreign troops in the country. Among NATO-led forces, Britain, the Netherlands, Canada and Australia have assumed the heaviest part of the combat burden alongside US troops. These countries are likely to be the loudest in their appeals at the February meeting for a changed strategy as well as more military help from NATO member countries and allies in the Afghanistan mission. Dec/07

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