ARMENIA 19 February 2008 Former Soviet republic holds presidential vote. Any change of power?

Thirteen candidates had submitted signatures from voters by 6 Dec, but the fight for the presidency of Armenia is expected to be between Prime Minister Serzh Sarkisyan and the country's first president, Levon Ter-Petrosyan. Robert Kocharian will be stepping down as president, but a recent constitutional change and a deal could leave him holding the reins.

Foreign and domestic issue merge in this election. Armenia's conflicts with Azerbaijan over Nagorno Karabakh and wars elsewhere in the South Caucasus since independence have effectively cut off the resource-poor nation from the outside world, with disastrous impact on its post-Soviet economy. Sarkisyan and Ter-Petrosyan differ over the terms of the Nagorno Karabakh peace settlement, with the former president acclaimed in the West for a more conciliatory line on the issue.

Several factors suggest there will be no change of power in Yerevan. The Armenian opposition is divided and Russia strongly supports the current regime, and Kocharian and Sarkisyan are likely to do nothing more than swap places. An overwhelming parliamentary election victory in May gave Sarkisyan's Republican Party control over the machinery of state. It appears solidly behind the prime minister's candidacy while restricting Ter-Petrosian's access to the media, moving against his business interests and financial backers and launching a rhetorical assault. The media has described Ter-Petrosyan’s term as president as “the disastrous 90s” that the country must not go back to.

A Kocharian-Sarkisyan swap becomes significant in light of a 2005 constitutional referendum that gives the prime ministers more power than the president.

Resigned Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili was the first candidate to register for the election. Other candidates include Levan Gachechiladze from the National Coalition of Opposition Parties, David Gamkrelidze of the New Rightists party, Shalva Natelashvili of the Labor Party and businessman Badri Patarkatsishvili.

Saakashvili led the 2003 bloodless Rose Revolution in 2003 and replaced President Eduard Shevardnadze, who stepped down from power. Dec/07

RELATED READING:

Poised for a Comeback? (TOL 31 Aug 2007)
http://www.tol.cz/look/TOL/article.tpl?IdLanguage=1&IdPublication=4&NrIssue=233&NrSection=1&NrArticle=18965&ST1=ad&ST_T1=job&ST_AS1=0&ST_LS1=-1&ST2=body&ST_T2=letter&ST_AS2=0&ST_LS2=-1&ST3=text&ST_T3=aatol&ST_PS3=1&ST_AS3=0&ST_LS3=0&ST_max=3

Armenia: Governing party prepares for presidential election (Eurasianet.com 12 Nov 2007)
http://www.eurasianet.org/departments/insight/articles/eav111207b.shtml